Tag Archives: Soccer

Value Bets in Online Sports Betting

Here’s how to find and make value bets to get the edge every bettor is looking for


One of the most challenging things to explain to bettors who are just starting out is the concept of value betting. Cost, risk, profit — these are the three things you need to consider when it comes to a value bet.

Once you understand value betting, you’ll be set up for success. Even though this may seem like common sense to a veteran bettor, for the inexperienced newbies, it’s not. I know when I started online sports betting, it was difficult to wrap my head around value betting.

Becoming skilled at wagering your hard-earned money on teams that no one believes will win can feel a bit like learning how to repel down the outer surface of a building — you reach a point where you’ll have to let go and have confidence in yourself!

In this article, I want to give you the confidence you need in order to place value bets. Let’s get started!

Bookmakers odds

Bookmakers are tasked with making the odds for thousands of lines, bets, and markets. All these are meant for numerous different teams as well as individual players to win, lose, or draw a match. There are of course other kinds of bets, but these are the most common.

Occasionally, some bookmakers will provide odds better than those offered by competitor bookmakers. That is, different bookmakers will have different odds. They normally do this to entice more clients and get more players betting on the given team, market, player, or event.


Every now and then, bookmakers will make simple blunders on a special match or event and provide extraordinarily great odds for a rather predictable outcome. We normally forget that the people who make the odds are human beings like us and can at times make mistakes. Oddsmakers also utilize data and information to help determine the odds they offer.

Value Bets

So, what is a value bet? Just as the name implies, a value bet is simply a bet whereby the possibility of a given outcome is better than what the bookmakers odds on offer suggest.

It sounds confusing but when value betting, you’ll be making wagers that have a higher likelihood of winning than indicated by the bookmaker odds. That means you’ll have an advantage over the bookmaker.

Value bets explained

You need to look for percentages. For instance, say a given soccer team wins 30% of their matches while playing at home. The likelihood percentage of the team winning converted to decimal odds would be 3.33. This is equivalent to 7/3 fractional odds.

Therefore, if you made a $20 wager on the team and they emerged victorious, you’d earn an extra $46. In spite of this, you need to understand that value bets aren’t just based on only one match. You’ve got to look at the bigger picture.

Let’s say a league season has 10 games and you place a $20 wager on Sheffield United who has a 30% win percentage. This implies that you’ll lose 7 out of the 10 wagers. What is more, you’d break even as you’ll lose your $20 wager 7 times and win $46 three times. $46 multiplied by 3 equals to $138. This is almost equal to the precise amount you’d have lost on the other wagers. So, looking at the risk and reward we can determine this isn’t a value bet.

Now let’s look if the odds of Sheffield United winning while playing at home were 4.00 decimal (which is 3/1 fractional). Three wins at 3/2 for a $20 wager would bring you a profit of $60 each. $60 multiplied by 3 wins equals $180 worth of profit. Alternatively, when you consider the 7 losses of $20 each on the remaining games, you’d be up $40. Therefore, it’s for you to decide whether the cost, risk, and benefits are sufficient to stick to this as a value bet.

How to Identify value bets

Finding value bets is easier said than done. Just like all valuable things, it will take you time and effort. But I want to make it as easy as possible for you, so here’s what you need to do.

1.  Never favor the favorites

Always bear in mind that you’re controlled by the odds on offer. Betting on favorites every time is not a strategy. Why am I saying so? Being that they are favorites implies you’re more likely to win, right? Yes indeed.

However, you must be aware that the bookmakers will also place smaller odds on them than what the actual likelihood of them emerging winners is. That’s just how bookmakers develop their edge.

Let’s look at an example.

You’re never receiving straight odds on Barcelona to win. However, you’re making a bet that the other possible outcomes (draw or win) for Tottenham don’t come about. You’re at all times playing against the odds. Moreover, since the bookmakers would like the highest possible number of bettors to back the favorite, they will ensure the winning margins are low.

For instance:

Using a match between Barcelona and Tottenham where:

Barcelona FC 3/7, Draw 4/1, Tottenham 7/3.

This when converted to probability implies:

Barcelona 70%, Draw 29%, and Tottenham 30%

When you add the percentages together that’s a total of 129%. This implies that the extra 29% on top is the bookmaker’s edge. They are providing lowball odds on Barcelona emerging winners. Let’s say 200 bettors made a $20 bet on Barcelona winning, 90 bettors made $20 on a draw and 75 made $20 bet on Tottenham to win. That means the bookmaker has taken in $7300. Let’s look a little deeper.

¼  Barcelona emerging winners:

This will be 1.43 x $4000 = $5720. This leaves a $1580 profit out of the $5720 total stake on the game.


A draw would imply a payout of 3.85 x $1800 = $6930. This leaves the bookmaker with an overall profit of 370 on the game. The same applies when Tottenham wins where the bookmaker will have an overall profit of $2350.

From this example, you can now understand how the bookmaker earns lots of cash when bettors go for the favorites. That money is money that is going to the bookmaker, not money going into your pocket.

2.  Approximate likelihoods

Always ensure you do as much betting analysis research as you can. This will enable you to grasp odds as well as the actual value attached to them. One of the best ways through which you can assess value bets is by computing the implicit likelihood of an event taking place.

You can do this by looking at past statistics of the teams. Like with the Sheffield United example above, the results could be based on the win percentages they put out over the last five seasons.

Mastering Value betting will increase profits.

All the same, you have to understand that nothing is set in stone. Given that their win percentage is 30% doesn’t imply they will win just 30% of the time. With the 10-game scenario, let’s say they lost all 5 of their games away from home and won 4 at home. It wouldn’t take a lot tipping the balance to a better win for you, in case they were to get one win on the move. This would take their final percentage to 40%.

Also, you can take into account numerous other factors too, like the number of first-team players out with injuries, their performance in the last five matches, and if the team also plays during midweek. All these factors can affect the major league results.

3.  Odds probabilities

You can always compute probabilities from the odds. Let’s say the odds of a team winning a match were at 3/1. That doesn’t mean that they have a 50/50 chance of winning. Remember soccer has three outcomes. This simply implies that you have a 75% chance of losing.

The bookmaker’s odds can never be stacked evenly. They are never going to offer even money on two evenly matched badminton players competing. For instance, one of them may perhaps be 4/7 and this is where the bookmaker edge comes in. You can always change the bookmaker odds on offer to probability. That is the likelihood the bookmakers are setting.

We can use the formula A/B which stands for fractional odds. So, the probability is B divided by A+B then multiplied by 100%. Using that to work out the probability of 3/5 odds would be.

A + B which is 3 + 5 = 8

Then take 5 and divide by 8 = 0.625

Take 0.625 and multiply by 100%.

This gives us a 62.5% probability.

In conclusion

We know that online sports betting is fun, but we think if you are betting, you should also be winning money. And one way to do this is by finding and placing value bets. We hope this article helps you make some value bets on your own.

Value Betting FAQ

  • Where can I find value bets?

    You can always find value bets in any market. Like a hidden treasure, you've got to look out for them to find them. But if you’re well acquainted with the event, individual, or team that you’re wagering on you’ll have your own personal map and compass. Essentially, you need to look for odds that are, in your opinion based on your research and knowledge, wrong.
  • What kinds of sports have value betting?

    In pretty much any sports betting that we talk about on Betting Guide New Jersey, you can find value bets. Make sure to view our other pages to see where you can make your value bets.
  • Is making value bets the only strategy I can use to get the upper-hand?

    No! We have many guides and articles all about how you can get the edge with your online betting. Make sure to add Betting Guide New Jersey to your favorites because we are always adding helpful articles to help bettors like you.

Betting on the Premier League

Is the Premier League the Best League?


It’s widely known that the Premier League is the best soccer league in the world. They have some of the best teams playing and they are super competitive. The Premier League has 20 teams, and they rank very closely to one another. This makes the Premier League highly competitive and teams regularly move up and down the league table.

Teams from the Premier League have had a lot of success in European soccer. With teams in the Premier League frequently qualifying and competing at both the Champions League and Europa League. Due to these competitive possibilities, the best players in the world choose to play in the Premier League.

Of course, soccer is a team sport, and a group of high-quality players will always be better than a team with one great player. It is due to this high caliber of teams as a whole that makes Premier League teams some of the best on the planet.  

The Top Teams in the Premier League 

There is a lot of history with the teams in the Premier League. The league was first made in 1992, where Manchester United was the first winning team. Many other teams came after to win the league such as Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal, Blackburn Rovers, and Leicester City. Other teams technically haven’t won the Premier League but have won multiple First Division titles. The current top 5 teams are;

  • Liverpool
  • Manchester City 
  • Leicester City 
  • Chelsea 
  • Manchester United 

However, there are other good teams you can bet on as well such as; 

  • Tottenham 
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers 
  • Arsenal 
  • Everton 
  • Sheffield United 

The lower table teams can be good to bet on because you will see regular upsets in the Premier League. There are teams like Aston Villa who returned to the Premier League this season and are trying to prove that they belong. Aston Villa is a team with a lot of history in English soccer and is a team to always keep an eye on even if they are near the bottom of the table. 

Betting online on the Premier League can be tricky because the teams have great squad depth, and some of the best players in the world. For instance, Liverpool has arguably the best defender in the world with Virgil van Dijk. Here is some information on some of the best teams in the league and the best online bets you can make on them.

Manchester United 

Manchester United is one of the greatest teams in the world. They have won the Premier League 13 times, last winning it in the 2012-2013 season. The team has been declining in form since the departure of Sir Alex Ferguson. Poor player signings and managerial changes have led to the once-great team becoming a shadow of its former self.


The team is bringing players through the academy and trying to build squad depth with homegrown youngsters. They have been having a bad season this year, showing no consistency to their gameplay. Nevertheless, somehow they are in the running for finishing the top 4 in the league. Manchester United have some great players such as Marcus Rashford, Paul Pogba, Harry Maguire, Bruno Fernandes, Mason Greenwood, and Bruno Fernandes. 

Betting on Manchester United 

Manchester United has shown that they perform well against top teams, beating them this season. They have also shown poor form against the teams lower down the division, losing to many of them. When placing an online bet with Manchester United, it’s good to bet against them when they are playing against mid-table teams. This is because they’ve shown inconsistency all season.

When they play against big teams, it could be a good idea to bet on Manchester United because they will be the underdog. Some of their best goal scorers are injured, so it could be a good idea to bet on them scoring fewer goals rather than more goals.  Another great bet would be to bet on a goal scorer, Marcus Rashford is on top form this season scoring many goals. Mason Greenwood somehow scores in almost every game he plays in.  


Liverpool are the current Champions League champions. They beat Tottenham 2-0 during the game in 2019 to secure the title. Liverpool is also the favorite to win the Premier League and the Champions League this season. They are a formidable team with top players on their squad.


No team has beaten Liverpool this season. They are aiming to be the unbeatable team this season from the looks of it. Liverpool has been so good this season they are nearly 22 points ahead of the 2nd team in the table. Liverpool has one of the most formidable attacks in the league, with players such as Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino. 

Betting on Liverpool 

Placing an online bet on Liverpool is a sure win with their current form. They haven’t lost a game yet, so betting on them to win against any team is a good option. However, the odds may not be great.

Placing a bet on Liverpool scoring over 2 goals is a great option. This is because their attack is amazing. They regularly score 2 or more goals per game but have been scoring 5 goals against some teams this season. These are usually against the weaker teams in the league.

Placing a bet on players to get a yellow card can also be a good option. Players such as Fabiano and  Alexander-Arnold have 5 and 4 yellow cards this season. Because Liverpool is so good, they are likely to get many corner kicks. Placing a bet on the number of corners they will have can be great. 

Manchester City

Manchester City is the current Premier League Champion, winning the 2018-2019 season. They are 2nd in the table and are likely to keep their position till the league ends.

Manchester City has had some bad luck this year with their ban from the Champions League for 2 years. This means finishing in 2nd place in the Premier League won’t give them the chance to play in the 2021 and 2022 Champions League. They were also given a $32.5 Million fine because they broke the financial fair play rules. This sets the team back and could affect their performances in the coming games.

A lot of top players won’t want to come to Manchester City because they won’t be playing in the Champions League. This could affect their player transfers for the Premier League. Manchester City have always been 2nd to Manchester United but over the past few years, they’ve edged them. You could argue that Manchester City is the better team now, after winning the league last season.  

Betting on Manchester City 

The best times to bet on Manchester City are right now. They are in a bad spot at the moment, and you could capitalize on this. Their spirits won’t be at their best after their ban. You could place bets against them when they play against big teams like Tottenham, Liverpool or Leicester City. Even some mid-table teams have a chance.


It’s always fun to bet on the Manchester Derby. In case you didn’t know what the derby is. It’s where Manchester United and Manchester City play against each other. Manchester United won the last Derby in 2019 with a scoreline of 2-1. The derby is always brutal, so it’s a great idea to bet on players getting yellow cards. Especially the defenders on each team.  

Leicester City 

Leicester City had a dream season in 2015-2016, where they were promoted to the Premier League and won the cup. They made a lot of pundit’s rich that season, mainly those who betted on Leicester City winning the season. During the 2019-2020 season, Leicester City has been exceptional.

They’ve only lost to the top teams this season and have played very well against other teams. They deserve their position on the table and a place in the Champions League for the 2021 season. They have also beaten their record this season with winning 8 consecutive games. 

Betting on Leicester City 

The season Leicester City are having makes it easy to place bets on them. They are likely to win most of the games they play against lower table teams.

Their next few games in 2020 are against easy opponents, so they are likely to get the wins. Because they are playing against lower table teams, a bet on them scoring 2 or more goals is a great bet to make.

Betting on multiple corners will also be good as they will dominate possession of the ball. Because they will dominate so in these games, the other teams will be frustrated making a  bet on yellow cards and red cards also a good option.


Chelsea has been having a tough season, but they are still in the top part of the table.

They appointed a new manager in Frank Lampard. A former Chelsea and England international player. He is a novice in the managerial world of soccer, and it has shown in some games the team has played. They have been put under a lot of criticism because Lampard doesn’t have a lot of experience as a manager.


Overall, as a squad, Chelsea has some amazing players. They have the likes of Tammy Abraham, Olivier Giroud, N’Golo Kante, Willian, and Pedro. It is a formidable team and with the right guidance, they can beat the best teams in the league.    

Betting on Chelsea 

Chelsea is still a good team even though they have been having an awkward season. The rest of the games they have left in the season are winnable. Games against Manchester City and Liverpool will be difficult for the team.

They might win these games as they are at the end of the season, and the teams will be tired.  However, their games against Aston Villa, Norwich City, Wolverhampton Wanderers, and Sheffield United are all winnable games. Betting on them to win by 2 goals is a great bet to make against such teams.


The Premier League is the best soccer league in the world. Betting online on the Premier League can excite and give you amazing returns if you bet on the right team and have a bit of luck. There are always games that will have upsets because the Premier League is so competitive. Check out our top online sports books here in NJ and sign up for the best promotions and bonuses.